Where is Winter?

Snowfall, or the lack of it, has meant major problems for the Upper Valley. And looking forward, it may impact the region’s annual winter events and it most certainly has had an impact on travel and even KTNA’s transmission.

Though it’s been a very warm January so far, it’s not the warmest ever recorded. University of Fairbanks International Arctic Research Center Climate Specialist Rick Thoman says it’s actually the low snowfall that’s unusual.

“Even more impressive than the temperatures is of course the very low snow that we have across Southcentral, at least at low elevations. In many areas, including Talkeetna, precipitation has been at, or in some places, above normal. In many areas at low elevations, precipitation has been much more in the form of rain.”

And it’s a weather pattern that’s been hovering over Alaska since December that’s causing it. 

“Basically we’ve got the winds aloft most of the time since December have been blowing from the south to the north, so bringing repeated rounds of warm air from much lower latitudes across the ocean and into Alaska.” 

Thoman noted that near the Talkeetna Spur Road and Parks Highway junction, only 37 inches were recorded since November, which is less than half of normal snowfall.  

Not only is there less snow, temperatures are about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. But that will change next week. 

“And we’re going to go at least that far below normal here by this time next week. It’s going to be below zero. There might be one light to moderate snow event as that cold air comes in, but then that’s it. It’s a dry, cold flow.  

Thoman says it looks like it will stay cold for about a week before that system moves on. 

“The concern, of course, is that if we don’t get any significant snow before that cold air comes in, of course, now we’ve still got the ice on the ground and now it’s just rock hard and isn’t coming up for anything.”  

Though we still have a couple months to catch up with some snowfall, April and May are usually drier months. And less snow in the spring can lead to increased wildfire risk. 

For now, it looks like a drop in temperatures with maybe a little snow next week. And everything will likely be very icy for the foreseeable future.