"Dynamic breakup" in Alaska means above average flood risk this spring

The National Weather Service in Anchorage is predicting an above-average flood potential for breakup throughout the state this spring.

According to the breakup forecast released last week, breakup is expected to come earlier than normal for much of the state.   In addition, may watersheds, including the Susitna, experienced higher than average snowfall this year. 

According to the forecast, the biggest predictor of flood potential is what is called a “dynamic breakup.”  That means cooler than average temperatures in late March and early April followed by above-average temperatures late in April.  The National Weather Service says those conditions have occurred and are forecast to continue through the end of the month.

While flood potential is higher than normal, an imminent flood is not in the forecast.  The National Weather Service rates the flood potential for the Susitna River at Sunshine as “low to moderate,” and at Gold Creek as “moderate.”  Breakup is expected on the Susitna at Sunshine sometime between April 26^th and May 2^nd.